“Lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo yethusi kukhuthazwe yi-macro side, kodwa futhi kusekelwa kakhulu yizisekelo, kodwa ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe kukhuphuka ngokushesha kakhulu, okusho ukuthi, ukulungiswa kunengqondo kakhulu.” Imboni engenhla itshele izintatheli ukuthi esikhathini eside, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amabhange okutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe noma izikhungo zocwaningo kulindeleke ukuthi ukushoda kwemakethe yethusi kungase kuhlale isikhathi eside, okungukuthi,ngemva kokulungiswa okuvamile, isikhungo sokudonsa kwamandla entengo yethusi singase siqhubeke sikhuphuka, ngaphandle kokuthi izisekelo noma inqubomgomo yeFederal Reserve ishintsha ngale kwalokho obekulindelwe.
UZhang Jianhui uthe amanani ethusi ahlangabezane nokuthengiswa okuthile ngentengo yamanje, futhi kukhona ingcindezi ekuthunyelweni kwemikhiqizo ngesaphulelo. Esikhathini esizayo, uma izinqolobane zethusi zehla, umjikelezo omusha wokunciphisa inzalo we-Federal Reserve uqala, kanye namandla aqhubekayo omnotho wasekhaya, amanani ethusi angakha umjikelezo omusha wokukhula, okungukuthi, kusenethuba lokukhuphuka liye phezulu okusha. Yiqiniso, ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma izinqolobane ziqhubeka nokuqongelela esinyathelweni esilandelayo, imakethe yethusi izokwakha umkhuba wokwehla kulolu hlu lwamanani.
UJi Xianfei ukholelwa nokuthi amanani ethusi esikhathi esifushane azolungiswa, kodwa esikhathini esimaphakathi neside, asabuswa amaphethini amaningi. Uthe ezingeni le-macro, umnotho wase-US kulindeleke ukuthi uthuthuke, futhi ukuncishiswa kwesilinganiso se-Federal Reserve phakathi nonyaka kusenganikeza imakethe uketshezi. Ezingeni eliyisisekelo, ukunikezwa okuncane kwezimayini zethusi kungase kuqhubeke "nokubila", kuyilapho kukhona indawo yokuthuthuka ohlangothini lokusetshenziswa, okuzoqhuba amabhizinisi angaphansi komfula ukuthi athenge izinto zokusetshenziswa ngaphandle komzamo omkhulu. Esigabeni esilandelayo, sidinga ukugxila ekushintsheni kwesaphulelo sendawo enkambisweni yokulungiswa kwentengo, uma isaphulelo sendawo sincishiswa kakhulu noma siguqulwa sibe yiprimiyamu, intengo yethusi nayo izosekelwa.
Kodwa abanye abahlaziyi banombono ongemuhle kakhulu. UWang Yunfei ukholelwa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwentengo yethusi kwamanje kungenzeka ukuthi sekuphelile, futhi akukho mandla ashukumisayo esikhathini esifushane. "Kusukela embonweni osekelwa yizinkunzi zemakethe, ukulindela kwesidingo esinamandla sethusi ngaphansi komnotho wekhabhoni ephansi kusazogcwaliseka, futhi kubhekene nokuncipha kwesidingo okubangelwa amanani aphezulu ethusi esikhathini esifushane, kanye nezici ezimbi njengokwehla kwesidingo samasheya okubangelwa umjikelezo wezomnotho ophansi esikhathini esimaphakathi neside kanye nengcindezi yesidingo ebangelwa izinguquko endaweni yokuhweba yomhlaba wonke."
UJiang Lu ulindele ukuthi esikhathini esizayo, amanani ethusi azohlelwa kabusha kakhulu ngenxa yokushaqeka. Esikhathini esifushane, kukhona ingcindezi kuthusi le-COMEX ngenyanga ezayo, ukunikezwa kwekhaya kanye nesidingo kuqiniswe ukuze kufezwe ukususwa kwesitoko, futhi ukuthambekela kokulungiswa kwentengo kungase kwehle. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla kwamanani ethusi kuzokhipha isidingo sentengo yamaphuzu aphansi, okuzokwakha ukwesekwa okuthile kwamanani. Ulindele ukuthi ekupheleni kukaJuni, ububanzi bokusebenza bereferensi yentengo yethusi bungu-78,000 kuya ku-89,000 yuan/ton, intengo emaphakathi yenkontileka eyinhloko kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-82,500 yuan/ton, futhi ephansi ingacabangela ukugcwaliswa kabusha eduze kwentengo emaphakathi. Esikhathini esimaphakathi neside, ukholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwenzalo yase-US kuzobambezeleka, kuyilapho ingozi yokwehla komnotho isalokhu ikhona, futhi amanani ethusi azobhekana nengcindezi ethile.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Meyi-30-2024